I am not a professional pollster. I don't know all the numbers by county. There are quite a few "toss up" states. But, I am calmly optimistic. This is how I would break down the electoral map.
States that changed from 2008:
Colorado: This state is still a toss up in my mind. But after seeing this youtube video, Romeny at Red Rock, my heart says he wins it. Bush won it in 2000 and 2004, and Romney is gaining momentum.
Iowa: Another toss up. They were the first state to give President Obama a chance by winning the primary in a shocking vote in 2008. However, I've heard there is more movement among independents towards Romney across the country, and Iowa seems to be a big independent state. Even with that momentum, I'm guessing Iowa sticks to their 2008 primary game changing vote, and goes for President Obama.
Michigan: Michigan is listed as a toss up state. But I'm pretty convinved that it will swing towards President Obama. The auto-bailout (which was initiated by the evil President Bush) talking point seems to favor the President.
Nevada: If Nevada can keep re-electing Harry Reid, then why would they vote for the better choice of President? Nevada is a toss up, but I think it will go towards President Obama.
New Mexico: In 2008, President Obama won New Mexico. However, in the 2010 elections, Republican candidate Susana Martinez won the gubernatorial race with 53%. She now has one of the highest approval ratings in the country, at almost 70%. There were also statewide gains in favor of the Republicans in 2010. Not extremely confident, but I'm throwing New Mexico to Romney.
North Carolina: In 2010 the North Carolina state House and Senate flopped from a double digit advantage for democrats, to the Republicans. Richard Burr maintained his US Senate seat. The US House race did favor democrats. But, North Carolina (with the historic election of President Obama) has gone Republican since the 1976 election of Jimmy Carter. Don't make a similar mistake in 2012! Romney takes North Carolina.
Ohio: President Obama needs to win Ohio. Mitt Romney needs to win Ohio. And I'm 85% confident that Mitt Romney will take the battle ground state. There was a rally in West Chester, Ohio that brought an estimated 30,000 supporters out into the cold for a Romney rally. Momentum is crucial, and Romney has it. Romney wins Ohio.
Pennsylvania: There was another estimated crowd of 30,000 people in attendence at a Romney rally in Bucks County. Mitt Romney is starting to really focus on Pennsylvania. Republican turnout is higher, independents are leaning to Romney. In 2010, Tom Corbett won the governor's race with 54% of the vote, and Pat Toomey squeaked out a victory with 51% . Both Republicans. However, Democrat Presidential candidates have won Pennsylvania consistently since 1988. If Romney can win Pennsylvania, this will be a Romney landslide! But I still think it will go towards President Obama.
Virginia: President Obama was the first democrat presidential candidate to win Virginia since 1964! Virginia usually swings republican, even when there is a strong democrat candidate (Clinton in 1992 and 1994). I'm comfortable giving Virginia to Romney.
Wisconsin: Scott Walker, the Republican fiscally conservative governor, won a bitter recall election with 53% off the vote. Vice Presidential candidate Paul Ryan is a Wisconsin native. But the polls don't seem to be favoring the Romney/Ryan ticket. But, this is another state I put favoring Obama, but I think it is close.
I am not a gambling person. I would not put money on my guesstimate. When I think of how close each swing state seems to be, I get sick to my stomach. What will President Obama do in a second term? I will absolutely cast my ballot for our next President, Mitt Romney.
(I made my own electoral map at: www.270towin.com)
I am extremely disappointed in myself during this election cycle. For the entire year of 2012, I've posted 7 times. SEVEN! Does not mean I haven't been engaged in all the filthy politics, my schedule just doesn't permit blogging time. BUT, I've had a few people make requests for a repeat of my 2010 post on the Oklahoma State Questions. This post will hopefully move from the "Draft" section to the "Publish" section.... because I currently have almost a dozen "drafts" saved away.
SQ 758: Reduce the cap on future property tax increases from 5% to 3%.
Yes on 758: Sooner Tea Party, Americans for Tax Reform are endorsing a Yes on 758, because it is "designed to slow the growth in property tax bills".
No on 758: School officials, county assessors, Oklahoma Policy Institute, etc are encouraging a No on 758, because "it benefits wealthy, suburban homeowners, and disadvantage those with stagnant home values."
My Take: I am all about keeping taxes low. However, this is not a guarantee for low taxes. "Many counties have fixed expenses funded by property taxes, and if there isn't enough tax revenue to meet those costs...the County Assessor would be forced to increase millages on all properties to raise the necessary revenue". And considering our current property taxes are half of the national average, I don't find the 5% cap as something that needs to be "reigned in". I vote NO.
SQ 759: Ban affirmative action programs in the state, and prohibit special treatment based on race or sex in public employment, education and contracts.
Yes on 759: Equal playing field, do away with an unnecessary and outdated system.
No on 759: Addresses a "non-problem" since racial quota's are already illegal, state has not faced significant allegations of 'reverse discrimination', etc.
My Take: You Decide. I have always had difficulty understanding the need for affirmative action today. Especially considering our President is a minority! I feel that this measure is more symbolic in nature - there seems to be no real issues of reverse discrimination, so why do we need to be proactive? Yet, I don't agree with there being any reason to hire or educate someone based on anything other than merit. I'll take any arguments either way! I will most likely vote YES.
SQ 762: Remove the Governor from the parole process for non-violent offenses.
Yes on 762: Oklahoma is the only state that the Governor is required to approve every parole recommendation, and the parole board only recommends parole for 30-35% of cases, which is less than by their investigators.
No on 762: Having the Governor sign off on paroles ensures accountability, since board members are not elected into office. Gov. Fallin does not support this measure.
My Take: The parole board seems to be doing their jobs effectively. The Governor still has to approve violent crime paroles. We need to cut the red tape and outdated policies. Gov. Mary Fallin needs to let the parole board do their job, and not be apart of every parolee. I vote YES.
SQ 764: $300 million bonding authority in case of water and sewage treatment loan defaults.
Yes on 764: Oklahoma needs the "financial reinforcement it needs to prevent the projected water shortfalls (unable to meet water demands by 2060). Only used as a safety net, last resort: only if an OK municipality/city defaulted on loan and all other reserve funds have depleted.
No on 764: "764 issues up to $300 million of new debt. State already has billions of dollars of debt on the books. The insanity has to stop."
My Take: Reckless government spending has to stop. However, to invest in the essentials of survival, such as WATER, seems like a smart idea. I vote YES.
SQ 765: Eliminate the Oklahoma Human Services Commission.
Yes on 765: You will not be abolishing the DHS or Human Services. You will be making the change in the constitution (Article XXV of the Oklahoma Constitution), and gives the Governor the ability to appoint the DHS director, thereby giving the citizens an elected official to hold accountable.
No on 765: This would be a "legislative power grab" and the "transparency of the agency would greatly diminish".
My Take: The state question was put on the ballot because of a horrible federal class action suit against Oklahoma DHS which demanded 15 areas to be addressed, including caseload, number of placements, etc. We have all heard the horror stories of tragic deaths of children being overlooked or put back into abusive situations. Changes must be made. I believe this is a step in the right direction. I vote YES.
SQ 766: Exempt intangible property from property taxes.
Yes on 766: It would grant the county assessors the ability to tax intangible property. This would increase taxes on local businesses.
No on 766: The huge unknown is how much will be unfunded in school districts and some counties. Could this "tax cut" only increase other taxes in the counties to make up the difference?
My Take: I do worry about taking more money away from the local school districts, although I live in one of the state's best school districts. However, I fear for jobs, businesses security, financial strains Oklahoma for the most part has been protected from. I guess my vote to keep the property tax cap at 5% would balance out my vote to make intangible property exempt from property taxes. If there is one thing that I am leery of is granting more ability to tax. My vote is YES.
