I am not a professional pollster. I don't know all the numbers by county. There are quite a few "toss up" states. But, I am calmly optimistic. This is how I would break down the electoral map.
States that changed from 2008:
Colorado: This state is still a toss up in my mind. But after seeing this youtube video, Romeny at Red Rock, my heart says he wins it. Bush won it in 2000 and 2004, and Romney is gaining momentum.
Iowa: Another toss up. They were the first state to give President Obama a chance by winning the primary in a shocking vote in 2008. However, I've heard there is more movement among independents towards Romney across the country, and Iowa seems to be a big independent state. Even with that momentum, I'm guessing Iowa sticks to their 2008 primary game changing vote, and goes for President Obama.
Michigan: Michigan is listed as a toss up state. But I'm pretty convinved that it will swing towards President Obama. The auto-bailout (which was initiated by the evil President Bush) talking point seems to favor the President.
Nevada: If Nevada can keep re-electing Harry Reid, then why would they vote for the better choice of President? Nevada is a toss up, but I think it will go towards President Obama.
New Mexico: In 2008, President Obama won New Mexico. However, in the 2010 elections, Republican candidate Susana Martinez won the gubernatorial race with 53%. She now has one of the highest approval ratings in the country, at almost 70%. There were also statewide gains in favor of the Republicans in 2010. Not extremely confident, but I'm throwing New Mexico to Romney.
North Carolina: In 2010 the North Carolina state House and Senate flopped from a double digit advantage for democrats, to the Republicans. Richard Burr maintained his US Senate seat. The US House race did favor democrats. But, North Carolina (with the historic election of President Obama) has gone Republican since the 1976 election of Jimmy Carter. Don't make a similar mistake in 2012! Romney takes North Carolina.
Ohio: President Obama needs to win Ohio. Mitt Romney needs to win Ohio. And I'm 85% confident that Mitt Romney will take the battle ground state. There was a rally in West Chester, Ohio that brought an estimated 30,000 supporters out into the cold for a Romney rally. Momentum is crucial, and Romney has it. Romney wins Ohio.
Pennsylvania: There was another estimated crowd of 30,000 people in attendence at a Romney rally in Bucks County. Mitt Romney is starting to really focus on Pennsylvania. Republican turnout is higher, independents are leaning to Romney. In 2010, Tom Corbett won the governor's race with 54% of the vote, and Pat Toomey squeaked out a victory with 51% . Both Republicans. However, Democrat Presidential candidates have won Pennsylvania consistently since 1988. If Romney can win Pennsylvania, this will be a Romney landslide! But I still think it will go towards President Obama.
Virginia: President Obama was the first democrat presidential candidate to win Virginia since 1964! Virginia usually swings republican, even when there is a strong democrat candidate (Clinton in 1992 and 1994). I'm comfortable giving Virginia to Romney.
Wisconsin: Scott Walker, the Republican fiscally conservative governor, won a bitter recall election with 53% off the vote. Vice Presidential candidate Paul Ryan is a Wisconsin native. But the polls don't seem to be favoring the Romney/Ryan ticket. But, this is another state I put favoring Obama, but I think it is close.
I am not a gambling person. I would not put money on my guesstimate. When I think of how close each swing state seems to be, I get sick to my stomach. What will President Obama do in a second term? I will absolutely cast my ballot for our next President, Mitt Romney.
(I made my own electoral map at: www.270towin.com)
8 comments:
Sarah I hope you are right! I've been missing your political posts this election!
I would only make one slight change: in recent polls Romney is noticeably ahead in New Hampshire. (Shocking in the North East, right?!) If people turn out and vote the way they've been polling NH will be red, too.
I watched 2016 last night and had serious anxiety.
Jeanine: I've missed posting! I have about a dozen "Drafts" for 2012 on my post list. This lack of posting is a testament alone to how busy this year has been! But, during this scary crunch time, I had to put my thoughts to keyboard.
Joy: If I could change anything about my map would be changing New Mexico to Obama, and New Hampshire to Romney. But that just goes to show how close it is state by state. Pennsylvania is very close, Wisconsin, and others.
Megan: I was going to write a 2016 movie review, and that has also been lost in the black hole of my non-blogs. But I do believe that the anti-colonialist or anti-superpower plays into his "level the playing field" push of his 2012 campaign. And a lot of the points the movie raises about some of his actions as President, does seem to show that he is an advocate of leveling the playing field for other countries. I'm a little worried how he will "be more flexible after the election", like he consoled Medvedev.
Another Obama presidency isn't what scares me the most. It would be the fact that the majority of the United States would elect someone who not only has pulled away from all of the Judeo-Christian political issues, but is now regulating religions into going against their core beliefs. When there is such a fantastic alternative, it will be shocking to me that those of us who are conservative fiscally and socially are in the minority. Just like both campaigns have pointed out, there is no clearer difference. We will elect what we deserve. I'm just afraid to find out what that is.
My condolences, Sarah. I would remind you that we live in a democracy, not a theocracy, with a wall of separation between religion and state. The president is doing nothing of the kind -- "regulating religions into going against their core beliefs"?! Please. You should accept the fact that your ultra-conservative world and state does not represent the reality of this nation's diversity. And I hope you respect the views of those who strongly disagree with you. The biggest outrage of this election, besides Romney's serial lies (where's your morality there ... my mom would wash my mouth out with soap if I told the lies Mitt did), the biggest outrage was state GOP governors, secs of state trying to suppress the vote by forcing Democrats -- African Americans, latinos, the poor -- to stand in line 6,7,8 hours to cast their votes. But they hung in there, stubbornly, and those great young Obama volunteers were there with water and munchies to help protect their votes. I hope you respect the will of the people. And unlike 2010, you're right, we did elect the government we deserve. Keep on giving us these gifts, Tea Party. You're 1-for-16 in the candidates you endorsed for the Senate. It looks more like America now, with the most women ever -- 20 -- including that great anti-Wall Street people's consumer champion, Elizabeth Warren. Obamacare is here to stay, and that's a good thing: As the President said, no little girl should be felled by Leukemia b/c she has no insurance or if she does, it won't cover a preexisting condition. These stories are legion. The mom, just like you, who spoke at the DNC, said Obamacare saved her child's life b/c it removed the ceiling on coverage for a catastrophic illness. And thank God we won't have ultra-conservative justices legislating religion and morality from the bench; instead, we'll have justices like Kagan and Sotomayor interpreting the law. Thank heavens we got the government we deserve. And we won't make the same mistake of sitting at home and allowing an extremist minority, the Tea Party, to dictate their right wing "values" to the rest of us. This was a historic election, and the people made the right choice. My favorite Republican, Chris Christie, is mighty glad of it too. FYI, Sarah, climate change is real and it devastated the Jersey coast. I take that personally b/c I have happy memories of it. Maybe now we can start doing something about it.
Carlos. I'm not sure why you would still check in on this little blog, seeing that you deplore everything I express. I appreciate you denegrating my beliefs, while responding with "Thank God". This was a historic election in the sense that NO PRESIDENT since FDR during the Great Depression has gotten re-elected into office with such a horrible unemployment number. I do not celebrate President Obama's re-election, because the better man to face the economic disaster that is looming in the near future lost to platitudes and emptiness.
I don't care to spend time addressing all of your "serial lies", which is the majority of your comments, because it would be an absolute waste. I address my blog to people who are open for conversation and dialogue. And you are not.
Oh, and thank God for the 22nd Amendment.
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